Bari 1-0 Cesena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Bari take on Cesena.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bari host Cesena at Stadio San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bari — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio San Nicola, Bari have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cesena have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cesena — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bari have won 1, Cesena 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bari in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Cesena in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 57% versus Cesena 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 38% | Cesena 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.19 xG and Cesena 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.984 / defence 0.898 | Cesena attack 1.207 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.125. Cesena have an above-average attack strength of 1.207 — the away xG of 1.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Bari games / 48 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 32% | Draw 35% | Cesena 33%. Fair-value odds: Bari 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Cesena 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Bari 70% | Cesena 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 32% | Draw 35% | Cesena 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 53% | xG Bari 1.19 / Cesena 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.984 / def 0.898 | Cesena attack 1.207 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Cesena xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Cesena kick off?
Bari vs Cesena kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Cesena?
Bari 1 - 0 Cesena.
Where is Bari vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Cesena part of?
Bari vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 32% chance of winning, Cesena a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bari and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cesena?
Record (2 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 1 | Cesena 0W.
What form are Bari and Cesena in?
Bari (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Cesena (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.98) and Cesena's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cesena's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
35%
2.83
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Bari xG
Total xG
2.41
1.22
Cesena xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bari and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Bari and 1.22 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bari come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 21D 14L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cesena sit at 1.49 PPG from 47 outings (19W 13D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.21 PPG, Cesena on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bari's home form reads 9W 11D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Bari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cesena have taken 1.57 points per game from 23 outings (11W 3D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.26 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Cesena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Cesena in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 12W 21D 14L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while Cesena have gone 19W 13D 15L in their last 47 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Cesena away?
Bari's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.65 PPG; Cesena away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bari and Cesena runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bari go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Bari's record when hosting Cesena specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bari
1
Draws
0
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cesena?
From 4 meetings on record, Bari have won 3, Cesena have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Cesena 1-2 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Cesena?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 65%, Cesena 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bari) and 48% (Cesena).
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Cesena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Bari's games and 56% of Cesena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bari's recent games and 48% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Cesena tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cesena in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bari defy the odds to beat Cesena 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Cesena 1-0 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.19 xG and Cesena 1.22 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cesena landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.98 / defence 0.90 against Cesena attack 1.21 / defence 0.89, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 32% | Draw 35% | Cesena 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Bari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 38%, Cesena 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Cesena's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.21 PPG, Cesena 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.