Bari vs Cesena – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bari's attack rating (1.04) and Cesena's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cesena's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
44%
2.30
30%
3.32
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Bari xG
Total xG
2.78
1.20
Cesena xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
5%
18.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Bari and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Bari and 1.20 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.