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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Spezia run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Avellino.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spezia beat Avellino 0-4 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.10 xG and Spezia 0.90 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Avellino fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Spezia outscored their 0.90 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against Spezia attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Avellino 36% | Draw 39% | Spezia 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Spezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 38%, Spezia 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Avellino's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Spezia's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Avellino arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.38. Form was overturned, with Spezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Avellino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights