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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Avellino defy the odds to beat Reggiana 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Avellino beat Reggiana 4-3 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.29 xG and Reggiana 1.42 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Avellino beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Reggiana outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.77 / defence 1.26 against Reggiana attack 1.00 / defence 1.26, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Avellino 30% | Draw 33% | Reggiana 36%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Avellino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 40%, Reggiana 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Avellino's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Reggiana's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Avellino 1.30 PPG, Reggiana 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Avellino win broke the near-deadlock. Avellino (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights