Avellino 2-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avellino vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Pisa travel to Partenio-Adriano Lombardi to take on Avellino. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Avellino stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Avellino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avellino's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Partenio-Adriano Lombardi this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Avellino are significantly better at Partenio-Adriano Lombardi than their overall form suggests.
Pisa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pisa have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Avellino) versus 1.50 (Pisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Avellino trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Pisa trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avellino 53% versus Pisa 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avellino 47% | Pisa 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 1.28 xG and Pisa 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 1.092 / defence 0.910 | Pisa attack 1.155 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.279. Data: 47 Avellino games / 9 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avellino 34% | Draw 30% | Pisa 37%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Pisa 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Avellino 50% | Pisa 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 34% | Draw 30% | Pisa 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Avellino 1.28 / Pisa 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 1.092 / def 0.910 | Pisa attack 1.155 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Pisa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Pisa xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avellino vs Pisa kick off?
Avellino vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What was the final score in Avellino vs Pisa?
Avellino 2 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Avellino vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Pisa part of?
Avellino vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 34% chance of winning, Pisa a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Avellino and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Avellino vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Avellino and Pisa in?
Avellino (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Avellino's attack at 1.09x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Avellino's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
34%
2.96
30%
3.38
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Avellino xG
Total xG
2.63
1.34
Pisa xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.34
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Avellino and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Avellino and 1.34 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Avellino come into this having played 47 games, going 16W 13D 18L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Avellino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 0.70 PPG from 47 outings (6W 15D 26L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Avellino carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Pisa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Avellino's home form reads 10W 6D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 0.70 points per game from 23 outings (2W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Avellino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Avellino are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.94 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avellino and Pisa in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 16W 13D 18L in their last 47 games (1.30 PPG), while Pisa have gone 6W 15D 26L in their last 47 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avellino at home or Pisa away?
Avellino's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avellino at home: 1.57 PPG; Pisa away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Avellino and Pisa runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Avellino
0
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Pisa?
From 1 meetings on record, Avellino have won 1, Pisa have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Avellino and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Avellino 2-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Avellino and Pisa?
Avellino have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avellino 52%, Pisa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Avellino and 70% for Pisa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Avellino keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Avellino have failed to score in 26% of games; Pisa in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avellino play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Avellino's recent matches and 52% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Avellino vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Avellino's matches and 70% of Pisa's.
Do Avellino and Pisa tend to score early?
Avellino have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Pisa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Avellino cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avellino beat Pisa 2-0 at Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.28 xG and Pisa 1.34 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pisa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Pisa attack 1.16 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avellino 34% | Draw 30% | Pisa 37%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Avellino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 47%, Pisa 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avellino's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Pisa's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Avellino arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.70. Form held, and they took the win. Avellino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.