🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Avellino defy the odds to beat Padova 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Avellino beat Padova 1-0 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.20 xG and Padova 1.30 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Padova landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.83 / defence 1.26 against Padova attack 0.89 / defence 1.13, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Avellino 33% | Draw 30% | Padova 38%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Avellino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 50%, Padova 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Avellino's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Padova's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Avellino 1.07 PPG, Padova 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Avellino win broke the near-deadlock. Avellino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Padova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights