🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Avellino's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 27, as Avellino and Juve Stabia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.29 xG and Juve Stabia 1.47 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Avellino fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Juve Stabia landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.92 / defence 1.39 against Juve Stabia attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Avellino 32% | Draw 27% | Juve Stabia 41%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 50%, Juve Stabia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Avellino's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Avellino 1.12 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Avellino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights