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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Avellino cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cesena.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Avellino beat Cesena 3-1 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.17 xG and Cesena 1.49 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Avellino beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.94 / defence 1.45 against Cesena attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Avellino 29% | Draw 26% | Cesena 44%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Avellino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 48%, Cesena 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Avellino's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Cesena's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cesena arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Avellino winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Avellino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Cesena (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights