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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Avellino cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Avellino beat Bari 2-0 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.40 xG and Bari 1.03 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.86 / defence 1.19 against Bari attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Avellino 43% | Draw 31% | Bari 26%, with Avellino to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 49%, Bari 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Avellino's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Bari's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Avellino 1.23 PPG, Bari 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Avellino win broke the near-deadlock. Avellino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights