Avellino vs Ascoli – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Avellino at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avellino vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Avellino host Ascoli at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Avellino have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Avellino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Avellino are significantly better at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi than their overall form suggests.
Ascoli — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ascoli have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Avellino) versus 1.70 (Ascoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Avellino, 1 for Ascoli and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 1–3 with Ascoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Avellino in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Ascoli in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avellino 54% versus Ascoli 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Avellino 46% | Ascoli 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 1.25 xG and Ascoli 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 1.133 / defence 0.814 | Ascoli attack 1.029 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Data: 48 Avellino games / 10 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avellino 39% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 29%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Ascoli 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Avellino as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Avellino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Avellino 50% | Ascoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 39% | Draw 32% | Ascoli 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Avellino 1.25 / Ascoli 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 1.133 / def 0.814 | Ascoli attack 1.029 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Avellino (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Ascoli xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avellino vs Ascoli kick off?
Avellino vs Ascoli is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
Where is Avellino vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Ascoli part of?
Avellino vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 39% chance of winning, Ascoli a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Avellino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Avellino and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Avellino vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Ascoli?
Record (1 meetings): Avellino 0W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 1W.
What form are Avellino and Ascoli in?
Avellino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Ascoli (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Avellino's attack at 1.13x the league average against Ascoli's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Avellino's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avellino Win
39%
2.55
32%
3.10
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Avellino xG
Total xG
2.28
1.03
Ascoli xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
8%
12.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Avellino and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Avellino and 1.03 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Avellino's recent record stands at 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Avellino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 1L across 11 games — 1.82 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ascoli by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Avellino heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Avellino have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Avellino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ascoli's away record stands at 2W 2D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Avellino are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.55 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Ascoli in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avellino and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 5W 5D 1L in their last 11 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avellino at home or Ascoli away?
Avellino's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avellino at home: 2.00 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Avellino or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Avellino have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Ascoli in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Avellino
0
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Ascoli?
From 1 meetings on record, Avellino have won 0, Ascoli have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Avellino and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Ascoli 3-1 Avellino.
Who has won more matches between Avellino and Ascoli?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avellino 40%, Ascoli 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Avellino) and 40% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Avellino keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ascoli in 40%; Ascoli in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avellino play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Avellino's recent matches and 40% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Avellino vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Avellino's recent games and 40% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Avellino and Ascoli tend to score early?
Avellino have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More Italian football predictions →