Ascoli vs Virtus Entella – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Virtus Entella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca plays host to Ascoli versus Virtus Entella in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Ascoli (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's home record at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca: 3W 2D 0L from 5 Serie B appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Virtus Entella have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Virtus Entella's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Ascoli. A 0.90 PPG lead over Virtus Entella (1.90 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Ascoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Virtus Entella goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 50% versus Virtus Entella 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 30% | Virtus Entella 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.27 xG and Virtus Entella 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.997 / defence 0.898 | Virtus Entella attack 0.912 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 10 Ascoli games / 48 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 40% | Draw 32% | Virtus Entella 27%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Virtus Entella 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 60% | Virtus Entella 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 40% | Draw 32% | Virtus Entella 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Ascoli 1.27 / Virtus Entella 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.997 / def 0.898 | Virtus Entella attack 0.912 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Virtus Entella xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Ascoli vs Virtus Entella is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Where is Ascoli vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Virtus Entella part of?
Ascoli vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 40% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ascoli and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Virtus Entella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Virtus Entella in?
Ascoli (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Virtus Entella (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (1.00) and Virtus Entella's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Virtus Entella's attack (0.91x) against Ascoli's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
40%
2.48
32%
3.11
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.28
1.01
Virtus Entella xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
8%
12.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.01 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 5W 4D 1L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Virtus Entella's form line: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ascoli are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Virtus Entella.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L).
On the road, Virtus Entella have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ascoli are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 1.10 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Virtus Entella in 60%.
Defensively: Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Virtus Entella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 games (1.90 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Virtus Entella away?
Ascoli's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 2.20 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Virtus Entella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Virtus Entella in 10%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 60%, Virtus Entella 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Ascoli and 40% for Virtus Entella.
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Virtus Entella in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Ascoli's recent matches and 40% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Ascoli's recent games and 40% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.