Ascoli vs Sudtirol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 21 as Ascoli welcome Sudtirol to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ascoli have posted 3W 2D 0L at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sudtirol — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Ascoli are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ascoli, 2 for Sudtirol and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ascoli in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 50% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 30% | Sudtirol 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.68 xG and Sudtirol 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.996 / defence 0.901 | Sudtirol attack 0.912 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Sudtirol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Ascoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Ascoli games / 48 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 51% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 21%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Sudtirol 4.76. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 60% | Sudtirol 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 51% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Ascoli 1.68 / Sudtirol 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.996 / def 0.901 | Sudtirol attack 0.912 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Sudtirol xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Sudtirol kick off?
Ascoli vs Sudtirol is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Where is Ascoli vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Sudtirol part of?
Ascoli vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 51% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ascoli and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Sudtirol?
Record (5 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 2 | Sudtirol 2W.
What form are Ascoli and Sudtirol in?
Ascoli (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ascoli's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.62
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.69
1.01
Sudtirol xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
4%
25.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.01 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ascoli come into this having played 10 games, going 5W 4D 1L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (3W 5D 2L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ascoli's home form reads 3W 1D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — Ascoli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.10 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 games (1.90 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Sudtirol away?
Ascoli's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 2.50 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Ascoli's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Ascoli
2
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Sudtirol?
From 5 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Sudtirol have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 50%, Sudtirol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ascoli) and 50% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sudtirol in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ascoli's recent matches and 50% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ascoli's recent games and 50% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.