Ascoli vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca plays host to Ascoli versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 20 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ascoli have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 0L across 6 games at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Ascoli, 1.50 for Pisa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Ascoli, 2 for Pisa and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Ascoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ascoli — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Pisa — key trading statistics (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 54% versus Pisa 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 27% | Pisa 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.26 xG and Pisa 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.996 / defence 0.901 | Pisa attack 1.055 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Data: 10 Ascoli games / 10 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 37% | Draw 31% | Pisa 32%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Pisa 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ascoli are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Ascoli 67% | Pisa 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 37% | Draw 31% | Pisa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Ascoli 1.26 / Pisa 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.996 / def 0.901 | Pisa attack 1.055 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Pisa xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Pisa kick off?
Ascoli vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Where is Ascoli vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Pisa part of?
Ascoli vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 37% chance of winning, Pisa a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ascoli and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Pisa?
Record (6 meetings): Ascoli 3W | Draws 1 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Ascoli and Pisa in?
Ascoli (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (1.00) and Pisa's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.05x) against Ascoli's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
37%
2.74
31%
3.20
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.43
1.17
Pisa xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
9%
11.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.17 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 5W 5D 1L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa's form line: 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ascoli are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pisa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (3W 3D 0L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ascoli are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.73 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 64%.
Defensively: Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Pisa in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 5W 5D 1L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Pisa have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Pisa away?
Ascoli's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 2.00 PPG; Pisa away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Pisa in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 3, Pisa have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Ascoli 2-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Pisa?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 67%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Ascoli) and 67% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pisa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ascoli's games and 50% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Ascoli's recent games and 67% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Pisa tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Pisa in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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