Ascoli vs Padova – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ascoli at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Padova travel to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca to take on Ascoli. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ascoli — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ascoli have posted 3W 3D 0L at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Padova stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Padova's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ascoli 1.70 PPG, Padova 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ascoli, 1 for Padova and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 0–1 with Padova winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ascoli in-play tendencies (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Padova in-play tendencies (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 54% versus Padova 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 27% | Padova 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.20 xG and Padova 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.996 / defence 0.901 | Padova attack 0.870 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Data: 10 Ascoli games / 48 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 39% | Draw 33% | Padova 28%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Padova 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Ascoli 67% | Padova 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 39% | Draw 33% | Padova 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Ascoli 1.20 / Padova 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.996 / def 0.901 | Padova attack 0.870 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Padova xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Padova kick off?
Ascoli vs Padova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Where is Ascoli vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Padova part of?
Ascoli vs Padova is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 39% chance of winning, Padova a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ascoli and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Padova?
Record (1 meetings): Ascoli 0W | Draws 0 | Padova 1W.
What form are Ascoli and Padova in?
Ascoli (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Padova (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ascoli's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Padova's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Padova's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
39%
2.54
33%
3.02
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.17
0.97
Padova xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
8%
12.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.97 for Padova, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 5W 5D 1L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Padova's form line: 5W 2D 4L from 11 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.82 PPG, Padova on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (3W 3D 0L).
On the road, Padova have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Padova in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Padova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Padova in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 5W 5D 1L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Padova have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Padova away?
Ascoli's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 2.00 PPG; Padova away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Padova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Padova in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Ascoli
0
Draws
1
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Padova?
From 1 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 0, Padova have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Padova last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Padova 1-0 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Padova?
Padova have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ascoli at 67%, Padova at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Ascoli and 50% for Padova.
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Padova in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Padova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ascoli's games and 67% of Padova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Ascoli's recent games and 50% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Padova tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Padova in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More Italian football predictions →