Ascoli 0-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ascoli at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca plays host to Ascoli versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ascoli have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Ascoli's home record at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 7D 3L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Modena have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Ascoli, 0.70 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ascoli 1W, Modena 2W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Modena winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ascoli half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 49% versus Modena 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 38% | Modena 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.20 xG and Modena 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.876 / defence 0.822 | Modena attack 0.969 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.215. Data: 71 Ascoli games / 71 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 39% | Draw 33% | Modena 28%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Modena 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ascoli 50% | Modena 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 39% | Draw 33% | Modena 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Ascoli 1.20 / Modena 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.876 / def 0.822 | Modena attack 0.969 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Modena xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Modena kick off?
Ascoli vs Modena kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Modena?
Ascoli 0 - 0 Modena.
Where is Ascoli vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Modena part of?
Ascoli vs Modena is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 39% chance of winning, Modena a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ascoli and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Modena?
Record (3 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 0 | Modena 2W.
What form are Ascoli and Modena in?
Ascoli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Modena (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.88) and Modena's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.97x) against Ascoli's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
39%
2.54
33%
3.06
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.16
0.97
Modena xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
8%
11.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.97 for Modena, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ascoli's recent record stands at 19W 23D 29L from 71 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 21W 24D 26L across 71 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Ascoli against 1.23 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ascoli have managed 10W 13D 12L from 35 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 9W 11D 15L across 35 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ascoli are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.18 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Modena in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 19W 23D 29L in their last 71 games (1.13 PPG), while Modena have gone 21W 24D 26L in their last 71 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Modena away?
Ascoli's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.23 PPG; Modena away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Modena?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Modena have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Ascoli 0-0 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 49%, Modena 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ascoli) and 57% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Ascoli have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Ascoli's games and 66% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ascoli's recent games and 57% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Modena tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Modena in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ascoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 34, as Ascoli and Modena drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.20 xG and Modena 0.97 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ascoli fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Modena landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.88 / defence 0.82 against Modena attack 0.97 / defence 1.11, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 39% | Draw 33% | Modena 28%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 38%, Modena 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Modena's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.13 PPG, Modena 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.