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Serie B · Regular Season - 2

Kick-off

Sat 29 Aug 2026

13:00

Venue

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Competition

Serie B

Italy

Status

NS

Most Likely Outcome

Ascoli Win

40%

Ascoli

2.47

29%

Draw

3.46

31%

Carrarese

3.27

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.5%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.5%

Home win

0 – 1

8.9%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.40

Ascoli xG

Total xG

2.58

1.19

Carrarese xG

40%
29%
31%
AscoliDrawCarrarese

2.47

40%

Home win

3.46

29%

Draw

3.27

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.86

46%

BTTS No

2.16

Clean Sheet

31%

Ascoli

3.28

25%

Carrarese

4.05

Win to Nil

12%

Ascoli

8.10

8%

Carrarese

13.23

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.5 8.9 5.3 2.1 0.6 0.1
1 10.5 12.5 7.4 2.9 0.9 0.2
2 7.4 8.7 5.2 2.1 0.6 0.1
3 3.4 4.1 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.398
λ Away (xG) 1.187
Total xG 2.585
League avg home goals 1.543
League avg away goals 1.071
Ascoli attack strength 0.850
Ascoli defence strength 1.150
Carrarese attack strength 0.964
Carrarese defence strength 1.066
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 0 / 38