Arezzo vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arezzo vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Pisa travel to Citta di Arezzo to take on Arezzo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Arezzo have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arezzo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arezzo at Citta di Arezzo this season: 0W 2D 3L from 5 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Citta di Arezzo this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Arezzo) versus 1.50 (Pisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Arezzo in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pisa in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arezzo 50% versus Pisa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Arezzo 70% | Pisa 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arezzo 0.74 xG and Pisa 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arezzo attack 0.587 / defence 1.322 | Pisa attack 1.058 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Arezzo's attack strength of 0.587 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Arezzo games / 10 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arezzo 14% | Draw 27% | Pisa 59%. Fair-value odds: Arezzo 7.14 | Draw 3.70 | Pisa 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Pisa (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arezzo 40% | Pisa 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arezzo vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Citta di Arezzo • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arezzo 14% | Draw 27% | Pisa 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Arezzo 0.74 / Pisa 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Arezzo attack 0.587 / def 1.322 | Pisa attack 1.058 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Pisa (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Arezzo xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Pisa xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arezzo vs Pisa kick off?
Arezzo vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Citta di Arezzo.
Where is Arezzo vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Citta di Arezzo.
What competition is Arezzo vs Pisa part of?
Arezzo vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Arezzo vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Arezzo a 14% chance of winning, Pisa a 59% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Arezzo and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Arezzo vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arezzo and Pisa in?
Arezzo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Arezzo's attack rating (0.59) and Pisa's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Arezzo's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
14%
7.08
27%
3.76
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Arezzo xG
Total xG
2.46
1.72
Pisa xG
7.08
14%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
3%
39.64
28%
3.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 14.6 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arezzo vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Arezzo and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Arezzo and 1.72 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Arezzo vs Pisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Arezzo have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 3W 2D 5L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Arezzo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa's form line: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Arezzo on 1.10 PPG, Pisa on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Arezzo have posted 0.40 PPG from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L). That actually lags their 1.10 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Pisa have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Arezzo are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.80 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arezzo
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arezzo and Pisa in coming into this match?
Arezzo have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Pisa have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arezzo at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arezzo at home: 0.40 PPG; Pisa away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Arezzo or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arezzo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Pisa in 20%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arezzo 40%, Pisa 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Arezzo and 60% for Pisa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arezzo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Pisa in 40%; Arezzo have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arezzo home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arezzo play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Arezzo's recent matches and 40% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arezzo vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Arezzo's matches and 60% of Pisa's.
Do Arezzo and Pisa tend to score early?
Arezzo have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Pisa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.