Arezzo vs Empoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arezzo vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 22 as Arezzo welcome Empoli to Citta di Arezzo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arezzo stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arezzo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arezzo at Citta di Arezzo this season: 0W 2D 3L from 5 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Citta di Arezzo this season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Arezzo 1.10 PPG, Empoli 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Arezzo, 0 for Empoli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Arezzo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Arezzo trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Empoli trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arezzo 50% versus Empoli 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arezzo 70% | Empoli 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arezzo 0.85 xG and Empoli 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arezzo attack 0.591 / defence 1.320 | Empoli attack 0.905 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Arezzo's attack strength of 0.591 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Arezzo games / 48 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arezzo 20% | Draw 30% | Empoli 50%. Fair-value odds: Arezzo 5.00 | Draw 3.33 | Empoli 2.00. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Arezzo 40% | Empoli 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arezzo vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Citta di Arezzo • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arezzo 20% | Draw 30% | Empoli 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Arezzo 0.85 / Empoli 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Arezzo attack 0.591 / def 1.320 | Empoli attack 0.905 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Empoli (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Arezzo xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Empoli xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arezzo vs Empoli kick off?
Arezzo vs Empoli is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Citta di Arezzo.
Where is Arezzo vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Citta di Arezzo.
What competition is Arezzo vs Empoli part of?
Arezzo vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Arezzo vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Arezzo a 20% chance of winning, Empoli a 50% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Arezzo and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Arezzo vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Arezzo 1W | Draws 0 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Arezzo and Empoli in?
Arezzo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Empoli (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arezzo's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Arezzo's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
20%
4.99
30%
3.31
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Arezzo xG
Total xG
2.33
1.47
Empoli xG
4.99
20%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
5%
21.74
21%
4.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 14.4 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arezzo vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Arezzo and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Arezzo and 1.47 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Arezzo vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arezzo's recent record stands at 3W 2D 5L from 10 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Arezzo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 6L across 10 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Arezzo on 1.10 PPG, Empoli on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arezzo have managed 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — 0.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.10 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Empoli's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arezzo are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.00 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arezzo
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arezzo and Empoli in coming into this match?
Arezzo have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Empoli have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arezzo at home or Empoli away?
Empoli's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arezzo at home: 0.40 PPG; Empoli away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Arezzo or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arezzo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Empoli in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Arezzo
0
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Empoli?
From 1 meetings on record, Arezzo have won 1, Empoli have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arezzo and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Empoli 0-1 Arezzo.
Who has won more matches between Arezzo and Empoli?
Arezzo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arezzo 40%, Empoli 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Arezzo and 60% for Empoli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arezzo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Arezzo have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arezzo home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arezzo play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Arezzo's games and 80% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arezzo vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Arezzo's matches and 60% of Empoli's.
Do Arezzo and Empoli tend to score early?
Arezzo have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Empoli in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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