Arezzo 0-0 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arezzo vs Ascoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Arezzo host Ascoli at Stadio Città di Arezzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Arezzo — All Games: 3W 1D 5L from 9 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.11 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.11 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arezzo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Città di Arezzo, Arezzo have gone 0W 1D 3L this season (4 games, 0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.25 lags behind their overall 1.11 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Città di Arezzo this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 5W 3D 1L from 9 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.78 per game and conceding 0.67. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form points away from home here. Ascoli's 2.00 PPG return is 0.89 points per game ahead of Arezzo's 1.11 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Arezzo in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ascoli in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arezzo 56% versus Ascoli 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arezzo 78% | Ascoli 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arezzo 0.78 xG and Ascoli 2.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arezzo attack 0.661 / defence 1.522 | Ascoli attack 1.215 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.279. Arezzo's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ascoli have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 2.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Arezzo games / 9 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arezzo 9% | Draw 19% | Ascoli 72%. Fair-value odds: Arezzo 11.11 | Draw 5.26 | Ascoli 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Ascoli (72%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ascoli are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Arezzo 50% | Ascoli 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arezzo vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Città di Arezzo • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arezzo 9% | Draw 19% | Ascoli 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 50% | xG Arezzo 0.78 / Ascoli 2.37 • Poisson strength factors: Arezzo attack 0.661 / def 1.522 | Ascoli attack 1.215 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Arezzo xG
Expected Goals
2.37
Ascoli xG
50%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arezzo vs Ascoli kick off?
Arezzo vs Ascoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Stadio Città di Arezzo.
What was the final score in Arezzo vs Ascoli?
Arezzo 0 - 0 Ascoli.
Where is Arezzo vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Città di Arezzo.
What competition is Arezzo vs Ascoli part of?
Arezzo vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Arezzo vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Arezzo a 9% chance of winning, Ascoli a 72% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Arezzo and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Arezzo vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Ascoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arezzo and Ascoli in?
Arezzo (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.11 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Ascoli (all comps): 5W-3D-1L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Arezzo's attack rating (0.66) and Ascoli's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Arezzo's defence, projects 2.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 0-3 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
9%
10.56
19%
5.29
72%
1.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
0 – 3
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Arezzo xG
Total xG
3.15
2.37
Ascoli xG
10.56
9%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
1.40
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
9%
10.65
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
1%
112.51
33%
3.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arezzo vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Arezzo and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Arezzo and 2.37 for Ascoli, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Arezzo vs Ascoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arezzo come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 1D 5L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Arezzo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ascoli sit at 2.00 PPG from 9 outings (5W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Arezzo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Arezzo's home form reads 0W 1D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.11 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Ascoli have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arezzo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.78 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arezzo
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arezzo and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Arezzo have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arezzo at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arezzo at home: 0.25 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Arezzo or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arezzo have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Ascoli in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Arezzo
1
Draws
0
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Ascoli?
From 1 meetings on record, Arezzo have won 0, Ascoli have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arezzo and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Arezzo 0-0 Ascoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arezzo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arezzo 50%, Ascoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Arezzo and 50% for Ascoli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arezzo have failed to score in 50% of games; Ascoli in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arezzo home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arezzo play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Arezzo's recent matches and 50% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arezzo vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Arezzo's matches and 50% of Ascoli's.
Stalemate at Arezzo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Città di Arezzo, Regular Season - 10, as Arezzo and Ascoli drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arezzo 0.78 xG and Ascoli 2.37 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ascoli landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arezzo attack 0.66 / defence 1.52 against Ascoli attack 1.22 / defence 0.92, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arezzo 9% | Draw 19% | Ascoli 72%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arezzo 78%, Ascoli 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arezzo's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ascoli's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arezzo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.