Venezia 1-2 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Venezia and Spezia meet at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Venezia's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spezia have collected 0.33 PPG across 3 Serie A outings this season: 0W 1D 2L. Last five: D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Spezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Venezia's 1.00 PPG return is 0.67 points per game ahead of Spezia's 0.33 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 33% versus Spezia 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Venezia 67% | Spezia 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.92 xG and Spezia 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.943 / defence 1.150 | Spezia attack 0.847 / defence 1.627. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.403. Spezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.627 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Venezia games / 3 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 50% | Draw 22% | Spezia 27%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Spezia 3.70. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 33% | Spezia 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 50% | Draw 22% | Spezia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Venezia 1.92 / Spezia 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.943 / def 1.150 | Spezia attack 0.847 / def 1.627 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Venezia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Spezia xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Spezia kick off?
Venezia vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Spezia?
Venezia 1 - 2 Spezia.
Where is Venezia vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Spezia part of?
Venezia vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 50% chance of winning, Spezia a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Venezia and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Spezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Spezia in?
Venezia (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W. Spezia (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.94) and Spezia's defence rating (1.63), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.85x) against Venezia's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
50%
1.98
22%
4.50
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.29
1.37
Spezia xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
4%
24.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Venezia and 1.37 for Spezia, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia's recent record stands at 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Spezia, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 2L across 3 games — 0.33 PPG, with D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Spezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Venezia by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spezia heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spezia in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Spezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Spezia in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Spezia have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Venezia
1
Draws
3
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Spezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Spezia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Spezia 2-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 33%, Spezia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Venezia and 67% for Spezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Venezia have failed to score in 67% of games; Spezia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Venezia's recent matches and 67% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Venezia's matches and 67% of Spezia's.
Do Venezia and Spezia tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Spezia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Spezia defy the odds to beat Venezia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Venezia 1-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.92 xG and Spezia 1.37 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Venezia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against Spezia attack 0.85 / defence 1.63, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 50% | Draw 22% | Spezia 27%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Spezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 67%, Spezia 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Spezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spezia scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.