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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Venezia and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 19, as Venezia and Empoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.28 xG and Empoli 1.74 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.89 / defence 1.22 against Empoli attack 1.06 / defence 1.07, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 28% | Draw 24% | Empoli 48%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 66%, Empoli 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Empoli's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights