Venezia vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Venezia welcome Bologna to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Venezia have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Bologna — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Venezia 1.40 PPG, Bologna 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Venezia, 2 for Bologna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 54% versus Bologna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 56% | Bologna 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.98 xG and Bologna 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.829 / defence 1.525 | Bologna attack 0.917 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.373. Data: 4 Venezia games / 41 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 19% | Draw 22% | Bologna 59%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Bologna 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 40% | Bologna 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 19% | Draw 22% | Bologna 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Venezia 0.98 / Bologna 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.829 / def 1.525 | Bologna attack 0.917 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Bologna (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Bologna xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Bologna kick off?
Venezia vs Bologna is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Where is Venezia vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Bologna part of?
Venezia vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 19% chance of winning, Bologna a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Venezia and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Bologna?
Record (4 meetings): Venezia 2W | Draws 0 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Venezia and Bologna in?
Venezia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.83) and Bologna's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
19%
5.30
22%
4.57
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.91
1.92
Bologna xG
5.30
19%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
15%
6.83
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
3%
36.18
22%
4.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Venezia and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Venezia and 1.92 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Bologna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Venezia come into this having played 41 games, going 23W 10D 8L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.39 PPG from 41 outings (16W 9D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Venezia's home form reads 16W 0D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.93 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.70 points per game from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.24 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Bologna in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 23W 10D 8L in their last 41 games (1.93 PPG), while Bologna have gone 16W 9D 16L in their last 41 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Bologna away?
Venezia's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.40 PPG; Bologna away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Venezia or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bologna in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2024, when Bologna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Venezia
0
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Bologna?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Bologna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Venezia 0-1 Bologna.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 40%, Bologna 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Venezia) and 50% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Venezia's recent matches and 55% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Venezia's matches and 50% of Bologna's.
Do Venezia and Bologna tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bologna in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.