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Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Venezia 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Venezia 0-1 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.88 xG and Bologna 1.05 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Venezia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.65 / defence 0.90 against Bologna attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Venezia 28% | Draw 35% | Bologna 37%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 57%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Venezia's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bologna's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights