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Shock result as Sassuolo defy the odds to beat Udinese 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Udinese 1-2 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.20 xG and Sassuolo 1.19 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sassuolo outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.90 / defence 0.99 against Sassuolo attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 36% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 36%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Sassuolo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 50%, Sassuolo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Sassuolo's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights