Udinese vs Parma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Parma at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Udinese at 0.40 PPG versus Parma's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Udinese have won 3, Parma 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Parma in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 48% versus Parma 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 50% | Parma 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.03 xG and Parma 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.697 / defence 1.265 | Parma attack 0.872 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.503. Udinese's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Udinese games / 48 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 23% | Draw 24% | Parma 52%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Parma 1.92. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Udinese 30% | Parma 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 23% | Draw 24% | Parma 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Udinese 1.03 / Parma 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.697 / def 1.265 | Parma attack 0.872 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Parma (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Parma xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Parma kick off?
Udinese vs Parma is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
Where is Udinese vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Parma part of?
Udinese vs Parma is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 23% chance of winning, Parma a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Udinese and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Parma?
Record (5 meetings): Udinese 3W | Draws 1 | Parma 1W.
What form are Udinese and Parma in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Parma (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Udinese's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
23%
4.27
24%
4.09
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.68
1.66
Parma xG
4.27
23%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
4%
22.37
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Udinese and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Udinese and 1.66 for Parma, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 9D 24L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.10 PPG from 48 outings (13W 14D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.12 PPG, Parma on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 6W 5D 13L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (7W 6D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 0.75 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Parma in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 9D 24L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Parma have gone 13W 14D 21L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 0.96 PPG; Parma away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Udinese or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Parma in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Parma runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 28 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Udinese
1
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Parma?
From 5 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Parma have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2026, when Parma 0-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Parma?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Parma see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 38%, Parma 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Udinese) and 38% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 38%; Udinese have failed to score in 42% of games; Parma in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Udinese's recent matches and 33% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Udinese's recent games and 38% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Parma tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Parma in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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