Udinese vs Parma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Parma at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Udinese at 1.10 PPG versus Parma's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Udinese's 30% rate and Parma's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Udinese have won 3, Parma 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Parma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Parma in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 49% versus Parma 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Udinese 46% | Parma 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.15 xG and Parma 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.807 / defence 0.937 | Parma attack 0.785 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.331. Data: 43 Udinese games / 43 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 40% | Draw 30% | Parma 31%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Parma 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 30% | Parma 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 40% | Draw 30% | Parma 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Udinese 1.15 / Parma 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.807 / def 0.937 | Parma attack 0.785 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Udinese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Parma xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Parma kick off?
Udinese vs Parma is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
Where is Udinese vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Parma part of?
Udinese vs Parma is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 40% chance of winning, Parma a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Udinese and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Parma?
Record (4 meetings): Udinese 3W | Draws 0 | Parma 1W.
What form are Udinese and Parma in?
Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Parma (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Udinese's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
40%
2.53
30%
3.39
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.13
0.98
Parma xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Udinese and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Udinese and 0.98 for Parma, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 9D 19L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.14 PPG from 43 outings (12W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.26 PPG, Parma on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 6W 5D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.14 points per game from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 0.74 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Parma in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Parma have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.10 PPG; Parma away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Udinese or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Parma in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Parma runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Udinese
0
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Parma have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Parma?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Parma see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 38%, Parma 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Udinese and 29% for Parma.
On the defensive side: Parma in 38%; Udinese have failed to score in 38% of games; Parma in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Udinese's recent matches and 33% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Udinese's recent games and 29% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Parma tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Parma in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.