Udinese vs Napoli – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Napoli (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Udinese face Napoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Napoli make the trip to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 January 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 1W 2D 7L at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Napoli have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Napoli are 0.90 PPG clear of Udinese in recent Serie A fixtures (1.40 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Napoli, who have claimed 6 wins from 10 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Napoli winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Napoli have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (48 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Napoli — key trading statistics (48 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 48% versus Napoli 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 48% | Napoli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.98 xG and Napoli 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.697 / defence 1.265 | Napoli attack 0.970 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.503. Udinese's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Udinese games / 48 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 20% | Draw 23% | Napoli 58%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Napoli 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Udinese 30% | Napoli 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 20% | Draw 23% | Napoli 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Udinese 0.98 / Napoli 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.697 / def 1.265 | Napoli attack 0.970 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Napoli (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Napoli xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Napoli kick off?
Udinese vs Napoli is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 10 January 2027 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
Where is Udinese vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Napoli part of?
Udinese vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 20% chance of winning, Napoli a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Udinese and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Napoli?
Record (10 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 3 | Napoli 6W.
What form are Udinese and Napoli in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Napoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Udinese's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Napoli's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (0.97x) against Udinese's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
20%
5.07
23%
4.42
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.82
1.84
Napoli xG
5.07
20%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
16%
6.32
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
3%
31.99
22%
4.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Udinese and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Udinese and 1.84 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Napoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 10D 23L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 1.88 PPG from 48 outings (27W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 6W 6D 13L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 1.60 points per game from 25 outings (12W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.56 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Napoli in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 10D 23L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Napoli have gone 27W 9D 12L in their last 48 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 0.96 PPG; Napoli away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Udinese or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Napoli in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 0-4 on 20 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
3
Draws
6
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Napoli?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Napoli have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Napoli 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 40%, Napoli 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Udinese) and 40% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 36%; Udinese have failed to score in 40% of games; Napoli in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Udinese's recent matches and 40% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Udinese's recent games and 40% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Napoli tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Napoli in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.