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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Udinese 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hellas Verona beat Udinese 0-1 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.60 xG and Hellas Verona 1.00 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Udinese fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Hellas Verona attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 49% | Draw 29% | Hellas Verona 22%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Hellas Verona win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 42%, Hellas Verona 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Udinese 1.17 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights