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Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Udinese 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genoa beat Udinese 1-2 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.33 xG and Genoa 1.65 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against Genoa attack 1.17 / defence 1.19, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 30% | Draw 26% | Genoa 44%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 49%, Genoa 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Genoa's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Udinese 1.22 PPG, Genoa 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights