Udinese vs Fiorentina – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli plays host to Udinese versus Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 29 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 1W 2D 7L at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fiorentina (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fiorentina have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Udinese, 0.80 for Fiorentina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Udinese, 5 for Fiorentina and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2026, ended 3–0 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 48% versus Fiorentina 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 48% | Fiorentina 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.22 xG and Fiorentina 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.694 / defence 1.267 | Fiorentina attack 1.150 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.502. Udinese's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Udinese games / 48 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 20% | Draw 20% | Fiorentina 59%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 5.00 | Draw 5.00 | Fiorentina 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 2.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Udinese 30% | Fiorentina 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 20% | Draw 20% | Fiorentina 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Udinese 1.22 / Fiorentina 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.694 / def 1.267 | Fiorentina attack 1.150 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.502 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
2.19
Fiorentina xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Fiorentina kick off?
Udinese vs Fiorentina is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
Where is Udinese vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Fiorentina part of?
Udinese vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 20% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 59% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Udinese and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Fiorentina?
Record (10 meetings): Udinese 4W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 5W.
What form are Udinese and Fiorentina in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Udinese's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Fiorentina's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (1.15x) against Udinese's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 2.19.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
20%
4.88
20%
4.97
59%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
0 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Udinese xG
Total xG
3.41
2.19
Fiorentina xG
4.88
20%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
1.68
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
11%
8.92
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
2%
43.50
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Udinese and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Udinese and 2.19 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Udinese's recent record stands at 15W 10D 23L from 48 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 11W 17D 20L across 48 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Udinese against 1.04 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 6W 5D 13L from 24 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Udinese are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.17 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 10D 23L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 11W 17D 20L in their last 48 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 0.96 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Udinese
1
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 4, Fiorentina have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Udinese 3-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 38%, Fiorentina 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Udinese) and 67% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 42% of games; Fiorentina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Udinese's recent matches and 58% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Udinese's recent games and 67% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.