🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Udinese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fiorentina.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Udinese beat Fiorentina 3-0 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.27 xG and Fiorentina 1.25 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fiorentina landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.89 / defence 1.06 against Fiorentina attack 0.99 / defence 1.14, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Udinese 37% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 36%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 50%, Fiorentina 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Udinese's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Fiorentina's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Udinese 1.19 PPG, Fiorentina 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights