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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Torino and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 35, as Torino and Venezia drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.45 xG and Venezia 0.73 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.94 / defence 0.80 against Venezia attack 0.82 / defence 1.28, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Torino 54% | Draw 28% | Venezia 18%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 31%, Venezia 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Torino's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Venezia's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Torino 1.33 PPG, Venezia 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights