Torino 1-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Torino at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torino vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Olimpico di Torino to take on Torino. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 7 January 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Torino have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Olimpico di Torino — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Torino 1.20 PPG, Udinese 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Torino have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while Udinese have managed just 1 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Torino winning.
The historical record gives Torino a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Torino trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Udinese trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 46% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 38% | Udinese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.55 xG and Udinese 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 1.004 / defence 1.329 | Udinese attack 0.889 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.162. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Torino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Torino games / 56 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 42% | Draw 25% | Udinese 34%. Fair-value odds: Torino 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Torino are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Torino 50% | Udinese 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico di Torino • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 42% | Draw 25% | Udinese 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Torino 1.55 / Udinese 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 1.004 / def 1.329 | Udinese attack 0.889 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Torino (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Udinese xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Udinese kick off?
Torino vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 7 January 2026 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Udinese?
Torino 1 - 2 Udinese.
Where is Torino vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Udinese part of?
Torino vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 42% chance of winning, Udinese a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Torino and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Udinese?
Record (8 meetings): Torino 5W | Draws 2 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Torino and Udinese in?
Torino (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Udinese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Torino's attack rating (1.00) and Udinese's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
42%
2.40
25%
4.07
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Torino xG
Total xG
2.92
1.37
Udinese xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
7%
13.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Torino and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Torino and 1.37 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Torino have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 16W 19D 21L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 18W 12D 26L from 56 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Torino on 1.20 PPG, Udinese on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.29 PPG from 28 outings (9W 9D 10L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 8W 6D 14L from 28 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Torino are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.05 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Udinese in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 16W 19D 21L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while Udinese have gone 18W 12D 26L in their last 56 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Udinese away?
Torino's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.29 PPG; Udinese away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Torino or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Udinese in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Udinese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Torino's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Torino
2
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 5, Udinese have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Udinese 2-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Udinese?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 46%, Udinese 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Torino) and 46% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 32% of games; Udinese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Torino's recent matches and 61% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Torino's recent games and 46% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Udinese tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Udinese in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Udinese defy the odds to beat Torino 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Torino 1-2 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.55 xG and Udinese 1.37 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 1.00 / defence 1.33 against Udinese attack 0.89 / defence 1.33, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 42% | Draw 25% | Udinese 34%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Udinese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 38%, Udinese 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.20 PPG, Udinese 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.