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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Torino and Pisa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Torino and Pisa finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.57 xG and Pisa 1.05 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Pisa attack 1.03 / defence 1.47, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Torino 48% | Draw 29% | Pisa 24%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 32%, Pisa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Torino's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Pisa's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights