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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Torino and Genoa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Torino and Genoa finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.01 xG and Genoa 0.80 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.74 / defence 0.76 against Genoa attack 0.79 / defence 1.00, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Torino 36% | Draw 39% | Genoa 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 31%, Genoa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Torino's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Genoa's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Torino 1.31 PPG, Genoa 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights