🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Torino's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Regular Season - 2, as Torino and Fiorentina drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.14 xG and Fiorentina 1.14 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Torino fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Fiorentina landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Fiorentina attack 1.06 / defence 1.01, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Torino 34% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 34%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 28%, Fiorentina 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Torino's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fiorentina's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights