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Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Torino 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat Torino 1-2 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.30 xG and Cagliari 1.35 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.98 / defence 1.34 against Cagliari attack 0.92 / defence 1.07, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Torino 36% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 38%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 35%, Cagliari 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Torino's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Cagliari's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Torino 1.19 PPG, Cagliari 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights