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Torino cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cagliari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Torino beat Cagliari 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 0.98 xG and Cagliari 0.99 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Torino beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cagliari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.66 / defence 0.83 against Cagliari attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Torino 32% | Draw 35% | Cagliari 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Torino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 32%, Cagliari 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Torino's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cagliari's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Torino 1.29 PPG, Cagliari 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights