Sassuolo 1-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sassuolo host Inter at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 outings — a 1.17 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sassuolo at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 4W 2D 0L from 6 Serie A matches — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inter's away record: 2W 1D 0L from 3 road trips in Serie A this season (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inter — 1.16 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.33 vs 1.17). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Inter in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 50% and Inter 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sassuolo 50% | Inter 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 0.85 xG and Inter 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.609 / defence 0.836 | Inter attack 1.088 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.534. Sassuolo's attack strength of 0.609 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Sassuolo games / 6 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 23% | Draw 27% | Inter 50%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Inter 2.00. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 0% | Inter 100%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 23% | Draw 27% | Inter 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Sassuolo 0.85 / Inter 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.609 / def 0.836 | Inter attack 1.088 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: Inter (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Inter xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Inter kick off?
Sassuolo vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Inter?
Sassuolo 1 - 2 Inter.
Where is Sassuolo vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Inter part of?
Sassuolo vs Inter is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 23% chance of winning, Inter a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sassuolo and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Inter?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sassuolo and Inter in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.17 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Inter (all comps): 4W-2D-0L in 6 | 2.33 PPG | GF 3.33 / GA 1.17 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (0.61) and Inter's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
23%
4.36
27%
3.65
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.25
1.40
Inter xG
4.36
23%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
6%
17.61
21%
4.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.8 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.40 for Inter, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sassuolo's recent record stands at 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inter, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 0L across 6 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Inter by 1.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sassuolo heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sassuolo have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Inter's away record stands at 2W 1D 0L across 3 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sassuolo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 3.33 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inter in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Early Season
Inter
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Inter in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Inter have gone 4W 2D 0L in their last 6 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.33 PPG; Inter away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Inter in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sassuolo and Inter runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Inter go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2026, when Inter won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sassuolo's record when hosting Inter specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sassuolo
0
Draws
5
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Inter?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 3, Inter have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Sassuolo 0-5 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sassuolo tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 0%, Inter 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Sassuolo) and 100% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Sassuolo have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 100% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sassuolo's recent games and 100% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Inter tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Inter in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Sassuolo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Sassuolo 1-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 0.85 xG and Inter 1.40 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.61 / defence 0.84 against Inter attack 1.09 / defence 1.16, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 23% | Draw 27% | Inter 50%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 50%, Inter 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.