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Dominant Inter run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Sassuolo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter beat Sassuolo 0-5 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 0.67 xG and Inter 1.68 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Inter outscored their 1.68 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.80 / defence 1.17 against Inter attack 1.22 / defence 0.68, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 15% | Draw 24% | Inter 62%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 49%, Inter 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Inter's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights