🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Cremonese 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Cremonese 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.18 xG and Cremonese 0.98 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.83 / defence 1.27 against Cremonese attack 0.67 / defence 1.19, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 40% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 30%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 49%, Cremonese 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sassuolo's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cremonese's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.78 PPG, Cremonese 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights