Sassuolo vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to to face Sassuolo in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 March 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Sassuolo (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 7W 0D 3L at — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sassuolo are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the last 9 meetings, Bologna have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Sassuolo's 1, with 4 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bologna have won 4 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 58% versus Bologna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 60% | Bologna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.56 xG and Bologna 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.260 / defence 1.054 | Bologna attack 0.795 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.331. Sassuolo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Sassuolo games / 43 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 48% | Draw 25% | Bologna 27%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Bologna 3.70. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sassuolo at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 60% | Bologna 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 48% | Draw 25% | Bologna 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Sassuolo 1.56 / Bologna 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.260 / def 1.054 | Bologna attack 0.795 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Bologna xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Bologna kick off?
Sassuolo vs Bologna is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 March 2027.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Bologna part of?
Sassuolo vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 48% chance of winning, Bologna a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sassuolo and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Bologna?
Record (9 meetings): Sassuolo 1W | Draws 4 | Bologna 4W.
What form are Sassuolo and Bologna in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Bologna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sassuolo's attack at 1.26x the league average against Bologna's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.80x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
48%
2.11
25%
3.96
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.67
1.11
Bologna xG
2.11
48%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
6%
17.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.11 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sassuolo come into this having played 43 games, going 16W 8D 19L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.35 PPG from 43 outings (16W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.35 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sassuolo's home form reads 11W 2D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.62 points per game from 21 outings (10W 4D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Sassuolo are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Bologna in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 16W 8D 19L in their last 43 games (1.30 PPG), while Bologna have gone 16W 10D 17L in their last 43 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Bologna away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.67 PPG; Bologna away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 0-3 on 22 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
4
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Bologna?
From 9 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 1, Bologna have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Bologna 2-2 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 52%, Bologna 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sassuolo) and 48% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 52% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Sassuolo's recent games and 48% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Bologna tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Bologna in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.