Sassuolo vs Bologna Prediction & Preview

Poisson model favours Bologna (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sassuolo face Bologna.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Bologna travel to face Sassuolo in Serie A (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Sunday 7 March 2027 at 17:30 UK time.

Form

Sassuolo (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Sassuolo have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sassuolo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Bologna's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bologna's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Bologna arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head sample leans to Bologna, who have 4 wins from 9 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 4 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Sep 2026, ended Sassuolo 2–2 Bologna — a draw.

The H2H data backs the away side. Bologna have won 4 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 59% versus Bologna 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 61% | Bologna 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.52 xG and Bologna 2.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.201 / defence 1.467 | Bologna attack 1.163 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.449. Sassuolo's defence rating of 1.467 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bologna's projected output up. Data: built from Sassuolo's last 49 games and Bologna's last 49.

Result probabilities: Sassuolo 23% | Draw 19% | Bologna 59%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 4.40 | Draw 5.33 | Bologna 1.71. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.99. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.99 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (1.52 / 2.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sassuolo's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sassuolo 80% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 50% (last 10 away games).

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