Sampdoria 3-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Sampdoria take on Hellas Verona.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hellas Verona make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Sampdoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 March 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sampdoria have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Sampdoria have gone 0W 2D 8L this season (10 games, 0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hellas Verona's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Hellas Verona are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sampdoria lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Hellas Verona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 45% versus Hellas Verona 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 52% | Hellas Verona 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 0.63 xG and Hellas Verona 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.543 / defence 1.010 | Hellas Verona attack 0.690 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.139. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.543 is below the league average — the 0.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Sampdoria games / 64 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 26% | Draw 38% | Hellas Verona 36%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.85 | Draw 2.63 | Hellas Verona 2.78. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.43. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.43 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Sampdoria's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.43 combined xG gives a 17% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 26%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 20% | Hellas Verona 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 26% | Draw 38% | Hellas Verona 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% | BTTS 26% | xG Sampdoria 0.63 / Hellas Verona 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.543 / def 1.010 | Hellas Verona attack 0.690 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.63
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Hellas Verona xG
26%
BTTS
42%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona?
Sampdoria 3 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona part of?
Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 26% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 36% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Sampdoria and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Hellas Verona?
Record (3 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 1 | Hellas Verona 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Hellas Verona in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.54x the league average against Hellas Verona's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.69x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 25.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (17.6%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.81
38%
2.65
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
19.1%
Away win
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.63
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
1.43
0.80
Hellas Verona xG
3.81
26%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
42%
Over 1.5
2.38
58%
Under 1.5
1.72
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.90
74%
BTTS No
1.34
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
53%
1.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.1 | 19.1 | 7.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.6%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 0.63 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.80 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 1.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 12W 12D 40L from 64 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 28L across 64 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.12 for Hellas Verona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 6W 7D 18L from 31 games — 0.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 5W 13D 13L across 31 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.34 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona in 67%.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 12W 12D 40L in their last 64 games (0.75 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 18W 18D 28L in their last 64 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Hellas Verona away?
Hellas Verona's away record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.81 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sampdoria
1
Draws
1
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Hellas Verona?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 2, Hellas Verona have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2023, when Sampdoria 3-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Hellas Verona?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 52%, Hellas Verona 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sampdoria) and 42% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 39% of games; Hellas Verona in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sampdoria's games and 68% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Sampdoria's recent games and 42% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Hellas Verona 3-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.63 xG and Hellas Verona 0.80 xG, a combined 1.43. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sampdoria beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.54 / defence 1.01 against Hellas Verona attack 0.69 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 26% | Draw 38% | Hellas Verona 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sampdoria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 42% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 52%, Hellas Verona 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 0.75 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.