🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Pisa 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Udinese beat Pisa 0-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.85 xG and Udinese 1.32 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pisa fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.73 / defence 1.11 against Udinese attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 24% | Draw 28% | Udinese 48%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 52%, Udinese 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Udinese's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights