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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Pisa 1-3 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.64 xG and Sassuolo 1.12 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sassuolo outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.49 / defence 1.13 against Sassuolo attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 21% | Draw 32% | Sassuolo 47%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 50%, Sassuolo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Sassuolo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pisa 1.47 PPG, Sassuolo 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights