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Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Pisa 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Parma beat Pisa 0-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.59 xG and Parma 0.81 xG, a combined 1.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.48 / defence 0.87 against Parma attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 24% | Draw 40% | Parma 37%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 42% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 51%, Parma 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Parma's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Parma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights