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Dominant Napoli run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Pisa 0-3 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.74 xG and Napoli 1.46 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Napoli outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.70 / defence 1.32 against Napoli attack 0.98 / defence 0.84, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 19% | Draw 27% | Napoli 54%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 53%, Napoli 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Napoli's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights