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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lecce edge out Pisa 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lecce beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.83 xG and Lecce 0.91 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lecce outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.67 / defence 1.23 against Lecce attack 0.65 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 31% | Draw 34% | Lecce 36%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 51%, Lecce 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Lecce's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Lecce winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights