🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Juventus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventus beat Pisa 0-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.51 xG and Juventus 0.94 xG, a combined 1.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Juventus outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.47 / defence 0.93 against Juventus attack 0.92 / defence 0.88, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 19% | Draw 36% | Juventus 45%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 43% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 24% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 50%, Juventus 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Juventus's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pisa 1.57 PPG, Juventus 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventus win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights