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Inter cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter beat Pisa 0-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.67 xG and Inter 1.10 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Inter outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.54 / defence 0.78 against Inter attack 1.25 / defence 1.03, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 21% | Draw 35% | Inter 44%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 52%, Inter 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Inter's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.68. Form held, and they took the win. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights