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Stalemate at Pisa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 7, as Pisa and Hellas Verona drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.89 xG and Hellas Verona 0.84 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pisa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Hellas Verona landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.58 / defence 0.97 against Hellas Verona attack 0.76 / defence 1.25, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 33% | Draw 36% | Hellas Verona 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 52%, Hellas Verona 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights